Alright, so here I am continuing from where I left off last night. I might post all my baseball preview stuff together in one big blog, but I'm not sure yet. Anyway, here are my National League predictions.
NL East- The NL East is another tough division. While the bottom two teams, the Mets and the Marlins won't do much this year, the other three, the Braves, Nationals and Phillies, all look very good on paper. Many have very high hopes for the the Nats this year. Throughout their years of finishing last, they loaded up their farm system and now their talent's getting there. I do however think Bryce Harper is being overhyped. Harper has been called the next Mickey Mantle (who happens to be my favorite player of all-time) and while he has a ton of potential, it's not like last year he did anything all that remarkable. In Harper's first season, in 139 games, he batted .270, hit 22 homers and 59 RBI's. Not bad numbers by any means, but compare that to other rookie standouts in the National League and it shows what he did was nothing that was incredible. Reds' third baseman Todd Frazier batted .273, hit 19 homers and had 67 RBI's in 128 games. While the Cubs' Anthony Rizzo only played 87 games, he batted .285 and had 15 home runs and 48 RBI's. He did that in 52 less games than Harper played. Look, Harper could be great, but he isn't up to the level of Mike Trout in the American League. Buster Olney compared the two as what Magic and Bird were to basketball their rookie years in 1979-80. That isn't a fair comparison. Perhaps a better comparison would be comparing what LeBron (Trout) and Chris Kaman (Harper) were to the NBA in 2003-2004. Harper hasn't done anything special yet. So let's not give him too much credit- but that's not to say that he could have a big year in 2013. Anyway, going back to my picks, the Braves are coming off a rather big off-season by hauling in 25 year-old superstar Justin Upton. They also brought in his older brother, BJ. The Braves will have a tough time replacing the leadership of future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, who retired in the off-season, but I think they'll be fine. I think Kris Medlen is going to have a breakout year for them. The Phillies might have a tough time this year. Going in to last year they had high hopes, but come the trade deadline, they were starting to fold by trading away some of their good bats like Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino. Age is starting to catch up with the Phils, and that could be a big problem. It could however all come together, and their pitching could will its way into the playoffs. But I wouldn't count on that. The Nationals are a loaded team with a lot of talent and the Braves also look strong, so this one's a toss-up. It really could go either way. I think I can see the Nationals getting off to a big lead, but the Braves getting hot at the end of the year. Every year we see teams free fall and I think the Nats could do that. The Nats are so talented though and we're going to be seeing them in the playoffs every year for I don't know how long. Curt Schilling says he could see them go on the type of run the Braves did where they won the division every year from 1991-2005. Even though I could see the Nats free falling, I think they're the safe bet to win the East. Division Winner- Washington Nationals
NL Central- For as uncompetitive as the AL Central is, the NL Central is the opposite. There are four teams that could be very strong this year. As I mentioned before, the Pirates were sixteen games over .500 with only a third of the season left. They looked like they could win the pennant and fans had high hopes for the team. And then they collapsed. They lost closer Joel Hanrahan and didn't do much this off-season. I think what happened last year was they're a team that's not used to winning. They've had a couple years where they've started well and had a good first half and then played poorly in the second half of the year. I think they're still growing and they need to make little steps each year. I think the Pirates are headed in the right direction and the big thing for them will be that they need their young players to keep improving and making strides in their game, like what Andrew McCutchen did last year. Can Pedro Alvarez become more than a 30 home run guy? Can he develop better plate discipline and hit for contact and not strike out 180 times and hit better than a .244 average? How can Starling Marte improve in his first full season in the bigs? If these guys, and more can keep improving, the team could be a playoff contender. However, I have them in third place in my picks. Not to worry Pirates fans, I think this is the year that they finally snap the 20-year losing streak. I think the Reds, Cards and Brewers will also be competitive. The problem with the Brewers is consistency. Last year they started to look like they were on their way back to the playoffs and then they got cold again. Then they got hot again, and then cold. If they can stay hot this year, they could sneak into the playoffs. But I like the Reds to win this division. The Reds are just so talented and not only are they talented, but they're hungry. Brandon Phillips was on Jim Rome's radio show recently and Rome asked him about how he feels about losing in the playoffs last year. Most guys will say "oh yeah, I'm over it and I'm ready to see what we can do this year." But Brandon Phillips was honest and said he wasn't over it. He said it still hurts, they thought they had the Giants beat last year. They were up 2-0, only one win away and then the Giants came back and ended up winning the World Series. That's the time of thing I like to hear in an interview. I think the Reds will be hungry and ticked-off this year, and will show no mercy. The last two years has taught me something about the Cardinals. Don't bet against them. They never give up. They did the exact same thing last year as they did the year before. They went on an incredible run to slip into the playoffs at the last second and got hot at the right time. They might have very well won the World Series if the Giants weren't as equally hot. I have no reason to bet against the Cardinals this year, and I expect them to get a Wild Card spot and do the same thing they did last year. As for my Cubbies, this won't by any means be our best year. There's a lot of rebuilding left and they could lose 100 games again. I do however think that they will increase their win total of 61 from last year. No matter how bad the team is, it will still be an interesting team to watch. I'm looking forward to taking the L down to Wrigley Field and watching Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro play. Rizzo gives us a lot of hope for the future. I'm interested in seeing how Edwin Jackson does this year after getting a fairly big contract from us. Can he return to the All-Star he was in 2009? I sure hope so. I also really hope that Josh Vitters can step his game up this year and give us a good sign and remind all of us why we drafted him with the third overall pick in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft. This year will probably reveal to us if he is our third baseman for the future, or if we need to abort the mission. I plan to be writing a lot about our Cubbies this season and I think we're on the right track. However, I'm picking the Cubs to finish last. The Astros are no longer here to finish last, so now the basement of the NL Central is all ours. Don't worry my fellow Cubs fans, we will get another high draft pick next year and get more pieces to build around. The Cubs aren't too far away from being a playoff contender, we could see them in the playoffs in 2015. But we had to completely clean house and build the team up from the minors. Theo's got us on the right path. Division Winner- Cincinnati Reds
NL West- The West will also feature a good division battle. The Dodgers went out and brought in some big name players last season. Unfortunately for them it wasn't enough to get them in the playoffs last year. This off-season they gave Zack Greinke a monster deal and hope that all their spending will get them in the playoffs. I think it might be just short. You see, there are a lot of good teams in the National League and a lot of teams that will be vying for playoff spots, and sadly there are only five spots in each league. Should the playoffs be bigger? I think they should add a team and I don't like the play-in Wild Card game, but I'll save that for another post (if you want it). I think the Dodgers will be very good this year but I just can't see them making the playoffs over the Giants, Cardinals or Nationals. I think the Giants will repeat as division champs and then the Dodgers will be competing with the Cards and Nats for a spot in the play-in game. I think they'll finish just short. I say Buster Posey has another big year and gets the Giants back in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks are a team that could surprise people this year, just like they did two years ago when they were in the playoffs and almost beat the Brewers in the NLDS. It will be tough for them being without Justin Upton, but they will certainly be a team to keep an eye on. The Rockies and Padres still have a lot of improving to do and both will be in for long seasons. Division Winner- San Francisco Giants
NL Wild Card Teams
1) Atlanta Braves- the Braves are too talented to miss out on the playoffs. I say they get in.
2) St. Louis Cardinals- the Cardinals get hot at the right time again and find themselves in the playoffs.
AL Wild Card Teams- Something I forgot to do in my AL preview was mention who I'm picking for the wild cards in the AL. I expect to see the Rangers and the Blue Jays playing in the play-in game. I think the Rangers will have a better record but the Blue Jays will be hot and will go on a run at the end of the year.
This concludes my regular season picks. My playoff picks will be up later! Thanks for reading guys!
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