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| Photo via Associate Press |
Last year I penned my seven reasons why I didn't think the Warriors would win the title, and was dead wrong, sort of. With Golden State down 25 in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, it appeared that the Spurs may have cracked the code to the 2017 Warriors. But when Warriors' hit man Zaza Pachulia cheap-shotted Kawhi Leonard's bum ankle midway through the third quarter, any hope of the Spurs upending the Warriors in the West quickly evaporated.
As the Warriors' many moving parts continue to fuse together into a super-team, the hope for a more competitive playoff race appears even more bleak, despite a flurry of big moves from Western Conference challengers. Last year's playoffs were duller than an episode of Big Bang Theory; among the last 35 games of the postseason, just seven of them were won by single-digit margins. Woof. Which leads me to a theory: In the year 2017, the NBA regular season is better than the the NBA postseason.
Not only do we get to see guys like Russell Westbrook put up video game-like numbers while squaring off against each other (as anything can happen on any given day), the regular season also generates more drama than the postseason does. It hasn't always been that way, but with two almost shoe-ins for the Finals, where's the suspense? While the Warriors looked like an obvious preseason pick, doubt crept in once Kevin Durant got hurt in the second half of the season. Young studs like Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Kristaps Porzingas and Giannis Antetokounmpo flourished, producing gripping TV. Just one of those guys played in the playoffs last year.
Before I enter my predictions, I want to leave you with one thought. Seven years ago, the "big 3" formed in Miami, as runaway favorites. While the league was more open and competitive at the time, the Heat won two championships and made four straight trips to the finals. In 2011-12, the Warriors finished at a horrendous 23-43. Nobody would have guessed that five years later they'd be a super-team. The Cavs and the Warriors' reign will not last forever, and I can almost guarantee that there's a team right now that's making subtle moves, laying the groundwork for their own dominance in five years or less. If you really like basketball, like I do, there are fascinating elements within the regular season, and without much further ado, here are my 2017-18 NBA picks.
Starting with the East, right off the bat, the Celtics are easily the most intriguing team. Just four years into his NBA coaching career, Brad Stevens has already cemented himself as a top-tier head coach in my eyes. His teams have overachieved each of the last three seasons. This year, I'm high on them as a regular season team. This summer, the team added two stars and grabbed a high-ceiling pick in the draft. What makes me hesitant to pick Boston as the Eastern Conference champ is its dramatic roster alteration, outside of the obvious big pickups. Avery Bradley has been a steady staple of the team's back-court, a lock-down defender and an above-average offensive player. In addition to Bradley, the team lost steady role players Kelly Olynyk and Jae Crowder. Who could forget Olynyk balling out in game 7 of last year's East semifinals? The roster changes raise some concerns, but I think Stevens finds a way for the new pieces to mesh, and the team grabs the no. 1 seed for the second straight year.
The makeup of the Cavs is very interesting, and Isaiah Thomas is easily the team's biggest mystery. Putting the questions surrounding his hip injury to the side, at 5-foot-9, Thomas typically needs the ball in his hands in order to create space for himself to get a clean look. Meanwhile, LeBron is a very ball-dominant player, so I anticipate it taking some time for the two to gel together. Nevertheless, the team upped its depth big time with the acquisitions of Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, Jae Crowder and Jeff Green. Working against the team is the ever-present friction between LeBron and owner Dan Gilbert, and the mystery surrounding LeBron's future (Does he leave Cleveland again?). Still, this team is propelled by LeBron and the plethora of talent surrounding him, and there's an extremely low chance that it falls below the 2 seed.
There's a big gap between Boston + Cleveland, and everybody else. Washington and Toronto's cores return for another crack at the two top-seeded teams, while the Bucks try to jump into the next tier of competition. The hits that Chicago, Indiana and Atlanta took this offseason make room for teams like Detroit and Charlotte to rejoin the playoffs after missing out last season. I like Andre Drummond and co. to have a bounce-back year, and I love that they upgraded from Caldwell-Pope to proven vet Avery Bradley. I also like what Charlotte did in the draft, swooping up Malik Monk. The Kemba-Monk combo could emerge as one of the league's most exciting back-courts to watch (a la Lillard and McCollum?).
The conference's last spot is up for grabs, and ultimately I think it will come down to whether Philly wants it or not. If the last stage of the process means adding one more lottery wing player, I wouldn't be surprised if the team sits Embiid and Simmons for extended periods of time if either faces an injury. The team could accelerate expectations early, forcing Philly to go for it this year. My big concern with them, moving into the future, is that very few of their players have grown their games in a winning culture yet. Fultz and Simmons' college teams struggled mightily, and Okafor, Embiid and others have been brought up in an adamant losing culture in Philly thus far. Philly remains a mystery. If it tanks yet again, Miami will be ready to jump back into the playoffs.
Left out are the rebuilding Bulls, Pacers, Hawks, Magic, Nets and Knicks.
Regular Season Eastern Conference Standings/Playoff Teams
1) Boston
2) Cleveland
3) Washington
4) Toronto
5) Milwaukee
6) Charlotte
7) Detroit
8) Miami
The potential for the West is much more glaring. I won't waste your time talking about the Warriors', you'll hear plenty about them everywhere else. The race for Golden State's top challenger intensified this summer. Houston added Chris Paul, a move that I actually am not very high on. Harden blossomed in his new role at point guard in 2016-17, having the best season of his career. He didn't mesh well with Dwight Howard (who does?), but I am very curious to see if he can coexist with another superstar that demands a share of the team's offensive workload. Head coach Mike D'Antoni engineered an exciting offense in his first year with Houston, however he hasn't been the greatest healer when dealing with star players not getting along. Remember the disaster in LA? Or dealing with Carmelo in NY? Houston is definitely a playoff team, but I wouldn't be surprised if team chemistry is off combining two ball-dominant players that haven't always gotten along with their teammates.
Sam Presti continues to shine as a top tier GM, turning Serge Ibaka into Paul George over the course of one year. PG13 is a great add, and if he and Westbrook can gel together immediately, it will be reminiscent of the Westbrook-Durant days. I like this team a lot, however I'm not sure what Carmelo brings at this stage of his career. His defense has regressed in recent years, and he certainly won't be gunning the same amount of shots he's had at any point in his career. If he embraces his role as the Butler to Batman and Robin, and contributes on the defensive end, he could really open things up for their offense, taking some attention off George and Westbrook. In order for this to work, Westbrook is going to need to put more trust in his teammates, which should be easier for him to do with two potential future Hall of Famers on his roster.
The darlings of the dance come April will be Minnesota and Portland. Portland looks to take another step of growth together. Having Nurkic for a full season will be a big plus. I picture Lillard and McCollum having their best year yet together, as they are now more accustomed to playing together, as well as the pressure of preseason expectations. In fact, there may be less pressure on them considering the chatter surrounding other teams that made more noise this summer.
For the first time in 14 years, the Timberwolves will make the playoffs. After stealing Jimmy Butler from the Bulls in exchange for a peanut butter and jelly sandwich and a bag of chips, and reuniting Butler with the coach that grew him in Chicago, things are looking up. Butler-Wiggins is going to be a shutdown wing-combo on the defensive end. Karl-Anthony Towns is going to have a big year with former Bull Taj Gibson by his side doing the dirty work. The Wolves also added Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford; they're going to be very well-rounded. This team is scary good and with Towns (21), Wiggins (22) and Butler locked up for the next 3+ years, this team isn't going away anytime soon.
All that being said, the top challenger to the Warriors is once again going to be the Spurs, as long as Kawhi stays healthy. I love the signing of Rudy Gay. For years, teams have attempted to make Gay their no. 1 or no. 2 star/scoring option, and on a good team, he isn't that. Now, he's ready to be a role player and contribute more as a well-rounded wing. If he's your no. 3 or no. 4 scoring option? Lookout. I also think LaMarcus Aldridge has a bit of a bounce-back year. I trust Pop's assessment in wanting to give him an extension. I won't question the move for now.
The last two playoff spots will be up for grabs, with a handful of teams in the mix. I've been skeptical of New Orleans for a while, but I'm very intrigued to see the Boogie-Brow combo together for a full season, given a summer to prepare together. I also like the acquisition of Rajon Rondo, who may be a little underappreciated at this stage of his career. Coming out of UCLA, I looked at Jrue Holiday as more of a shooting guard than a point guard, though he has put together a very nice a career at the point. I'm curious to see what he does playing the scorer to Rondo's distributor. I also love the idea of going big while the whole league's going small. I like creativity, and willingness to challenge the system, and for that I applaud New Orleans' front office.
The poor Jazz, after years of mediocrity, built something special last year, but had Gordon Heyward leave. They still have Gobert, who will be an All-Star this year, and I like Favors; they'll be alright, but I doubt they edge out other teams.
The Nuggets added the ever-consistent Paul Millsap to pair with Jokic in the front-court. The Nuggets still have a lot of depth with Wilson Chandler, Gary Harris, Will Barton and Kenneth Faried, and have some trade chips if they want to add another big piece. I like Jamaal Murray a lot, and Emmanuel Mudiay still has a high ceiling. I think it comes together for Denver and they're back in the playoffs for the first time in five years.
It seems like each year, people write off Memphis, and maybe I'm wrong again, but I don't anticipate seeing them in the playoffs this year. I like the Ben McClemore pickup a lot, though. This year, I'm also writing off the Clips. The team tends to deal with a handful of injuries to significant players, and Chris Paul won't be there this time to right the ship.
Even the non-playoff teams are going to be fun to watch. The Lakeshow is back, and Lonzo's Lakers are going to be exciting. I like their future, but don't think they're ready for primetime yet. The Suns have a very bright future, with Devin Booker, TJ Warren and Josh Jackson. I also love the Alec Peters pick (a former classmate of mine at Valpo). The guy plays with an unbelievable amount of heart and is going to find a way to be an impact player in this league. Dallas should be about the same as it was last year, maybe a little better. Even in year 20, Dirk's still ballin'. And while the Kings have been well, the Kings, for years, they had a good draft and have some fun young players.
Regular Season Western Conference Standings/Playoffs
1) Golden State
2) San Antonio
3) OKC
4) Minnesota
5) Portland
6) Houston
7) Denver
8) New Orleans
Awards
Rookie of the Year- While I expect Josh Jackson and Lonzo Ball to have the best careers among a deep draft 2017 draft class, I expect Malik Monk and De'Aaron Fox to have the biggest immediate impacts in the association. The Kentucky duo is very NBA ready. My bet says Fox puts up great stats on a lousy team, good enough for the 2017-18 Rookie of the Year.
Defensive Player of the Year- Last year's Defensive Player of the Year Award selection was even more laughable than the creation of an off-season NBA Awards show (which ended up being decent entertainment). Draymond Green winning DPOY over Kawhi is one of the most egregious award selections in recent memory. Kawhi is far and away the league's best defensive player, two-way player, and maybe the game's best night-to-night player. What Draymond did on the defensive end last year is far less impressive than how Kawhi shutdown scorers every single night. Draymond is on one of the best offensive teams in NBA history. He's able to save his energy for the defensive end. The Spurs are super Kawhi-dependent, he carries them offensively and defensively. Kawhi can't save energy on either end of the floor. What makes the selection worse is that Draymond was fourth in the league in technical fouls, which translates to free points for the other team. How can the DPOY give away free points? As writers continue to salivate over Draymond as one of the league's best quote-machines, you have to wonder if members of the media favored him and his openness with the press over the nearly silent Kawhi. Kawhi is going to only get better defensively, and this year the press takes better notice of it.
Sixth Man of the Year- Jamal Crawford at age 37 wins his last Sixth Man of the Year award. Honestly, this is a weird award to make a prediction for, so I'll go with the proven vet in an opportune situation for him to shine one last time.
Coach of the Year- Coach Tom Thibodeau could up Minnesota's win total by 20 this year. I like his chances.
MVP- This is the year that fans and voters embrace Kawhi as the league's new alpha dog. Westbrook doesn't average a triple-double again, Harden's numbers dip some and LeBron is past caring about the regular season. Kawhi rises. My long shot pick: Giannis.
Conference Finals
I could have the generic Finals pick. But what fun is that?
The Kyrie vs. LeBron story is going to be a lot of fun. This will be the most exciting Eastern Conference Finals in a long, long time. I can envision a scenario where Boston wins, but for now, I'll take the safe, less exciting pick in Cleveland.
In the West, I'm going balls to the wall again. If Kawhi's healthy, the Spurs prove to be the perfect kryptonite to the Dubs. The Warriors finally catch some bad breaks in the playoffs (Do Durant/Curry stay healthy? Could Draymond get suspended again?), and have a tougher time making it through the West than they have in years prior.
Finals
San Antonio beats Cleveland for the same reason I thought they would last year. Spurs have caught bad breaks the last two years and this year, it all comes together.
I won't spend more than three short paragraphs predicting the postseason, but I won't for the reason expressed earlier. Even if I'm wrong on my picks and the playoffs suck, there should plenty to keep you entertained this regular season if you like basketball.
