Monday, April 1, 2013

Complete Major League Baseball Season Preview

So I've put all my picks up and whatnot, but I decided to put it all together in one blog in case anyone preferred that instead of reading different posts. So here we go.

Introduction 
This is my first time making picks since 2010. Yeah, it really has been that long. Three years. Previous to 2010, baseball was all I knew. It was my favorite sport, and my favorite sport to write and talk about. Then for a couple years I started to lose interest in it. I don't know why, but for some reason I didn't care much about what would happen. Perhaps it was because my beloved Cubbies were struggling and were clearly on a downward spiral. All the sudden, checking the box scores of games every day on my iPod wasn't that interesting. It meant nothing to me, because the Cubs weren't winning. There was also a time over that stretch where I wasn't following or watching all sports as closely as I used to. Some time during the 2011 season, my interest started to kick back in. I witnessed the Cubs' division rival Cardinals go on a remarkable tear at the end of the year to not only make the playoffs, but win the World Series. It looked like they were done in August, and then out of nowhere made this incredible comeback, made the playoffs, and took down a great Texas Rangers team in the World Series. This run they went on inspired many and reminded me why I love sports. 

Now, I'm no Cardinals fan. They are the Cubs' biggest rival and give the Cubs the toughest time in the summer. But I had great respect for what the Cardinals were doing and they truly were a great underdog story. I entered last year's season with my love for baseball back but I didn't make any picks. I'm no expert. I know more about the NBA and NFL, and maybe that's because it's covered my more on ESPN. I don't know. But I was trying to pick right up where I left off with baseball, trying to learn more about the game and its players. Then all the sudden, my other favorite team, the Pittsburgh Pirates started to dominate in June. Previous to this season, the Pirates hadn't had a winning season in 19 years. The Pirates were playing great ball and I thought they were gonna make the playoffs. And then... they collapsed. They became the first team to ever be 16 games over .500 with two thirds of the season complete and still finish the season with a losing record. The term "heartbreak" came to mind, something I've known way too much about as a sports fan.

Are the Cubs or Pirates going to win the World Series this year? Definitely not. However both teams are doing a good job of putting the pieces in place for the future. In 2015 we could see both teams battling it out for the NL Central Division Title. 

This year is going to be interesting. We had some huge deals in the off-season and the Astros are moving to the NL West to finally balance out the league. Seriously, how come we've had 30 teams in the MLB, with 16 in the National League and 14 in the American League? Six teams in the NL Central and four in the AL West? Makes no sense to me. We still have the problem of the designated hitter. It's no fair that the AL has a designated hitter for their pitchers while the NL doesn't. When the two teams meet in interleague play or in the World Series, whoever has home-field advantage has the game played their way. People will argue over whether or not the designated hitter is a good thing for the game... that's not what I'm talking about. The people in favor of the designated hitter will say it's good because it protects pitchers from getting injured when they aren't pitching, while old school thinkers will say that all nine players on the field should hit in the lineup. I don't side with either of those arguments. However I do think that if you're going to have a designated hitter, it should be in both leagues. Some will say that the NL has a bigger advantage when the two teams meet because the pitchers are used to hitting. I disagree. All pitchers have hit at some time in their life. Chances are some of those pitchers were the best hitters on their high school teams. It's not like you're taking a punter on a football team and putting him in on offensive line to get pummeled. The NL has no advantage. The AL has a huge advantage because they have to sign someone as their designated hitter because they'll be playing there every day during the regular season. The NL has to take someone off their bench and put them in at DH. It simply isn't fair. There are other problems I have with the MLB, specifically the salary cap which allows teams like the Yankees and Angels to spend big money on free agents when small-market teams like Tampa Bay are haunted by the thought of free agency because to them it means they won't be able to pay their guys and they'll lose them. I won't dive too much further into my problems with the league, however the fact that the Astros are moving to the AL is a good thing and it certainly is a step in the right direction.

This off-season we also said goodbye to the third-to-first pick-off move, which will now be ruled as a balk. That rule change won't only affect MLB, but everything below it. From college, to high school, to little league. That move wasn't used very often in the bigs, however it is interesting whenever the rules change. This off-season showcased Los Angeles' ability to lure big name players to its city. While the Yankees normally are the heavy spenders, we didn't hear much from them. The Dodgers gave Zack Greinke a massive deal and my favorite player Josh Hamilton fled the Rangers for a division rival. The Blue Jays jumped in on the Marlins fire sale and completely reloaded their team, also trading for NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey from the Mets. It will be interesting to see how things shape up this year. Will teams that spend big be rewarded? Or will small market teams like the A's and Rays be the favorites in October. This is my MLB Preview.

AL East- The AL East is by far the most open division. Anyone could win it. For years the Yankees and Red Sox dominated it, but both teams are shaky to say the least this year. The Yankees have a lot of injury problems. The Red Sox are in rebuilding mode, and we don't know how long that will last. The Orioles are coming off a magical season and may have a tough time replicating it. The Blue Jays are coming off one of the best off-seasons in baseball history on paper, and will be put to test on the field. I went to a Blue Jays-Pirates spring training game a week ago and I was impressed with both teams. My initial reaction to seeing that the Blue Jays brought in all these guys from the Marlins was "wow, they're going to be just as big an embarrassment as the Marlins were last year." But that isn't the case. You see, they took those guys from a bad team and blended them with talent on their current roster. And then they went out and got R.A. Dickey. They've got power, they've got speed, they've got pitching, and if it all comes together they could be a dangerous team come October. I expect them to have some early struggles but finish the year hot. However, they aren't my pick to win the division. I like the Rays. The Rays are a team that's shown consistency, even though they have hardly any money. The Rays are well-managed and have great pitching, which is the type of team I would put my money on in this crazy, unpredictable division. Division Winner- Tampa Bay Rays

AL Central- This is without a doubt the weakest division in the bigs. The Tigers will win this division, and if they don't run away with it, they should be ashamed. The White Sox will finish the second and the Royals will prove to be a team on the rise. The Indians and Twins could both be in for 100 loss seasons, however, their time will eventually come. The Tigers have one of the best lineups in the league and an unreal pitcher in Justin Verlander. There really is no contest here and I don't know if there's anything left that needs to be said. Division Winner- Detroit Tigers

AL West- I think this is the most intriguing division. You've got a new team in it, and three that will be very good, as well as some good story-lines. How will Josh Hamilton's return to play Texas be received? How will Mike Trout play in his sophomore year? How will the Rangers fair without Hamilton? All, and many more will be interesting to watch this season. I think a team that could be overlooked is the A's. People forget that the A's were the team that won the division last year. The Rangers collapsed and the A's played out of their minds for 162 games, and came close to upsetting the potential AL champ, Detroit. Left fielder Yoenis Cespedes has been compared to Bo Jackson and Willie Mays. The guy could be great. If the pitching holds up, we could see the A's sneaking in to the playoffs yet again. I do think however that the Angels and Rangers will be better this year. I think that because Hamilton left, the current Rangers team will be more fired up to prove that they can win without him. The Rangers have one of the best farm systems and we could be seeing some more of their young talent coming up this year, as well as some of their young players they've brought up in recent years elevating their games to new heights. I will pick the Angels, though. I think bringing in Josh Hamilton made them a super-team. Not only did they get a five-tool player, and pair him with another five-tool player in the outfield, but they stole that five-tool player from their division rival and they won't have to face him again. Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, Trumbo... This team is loaded. I like them to win the West.  Division Winner- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

AL Wild Card Teams
1) Texas Rangers
2) Toronto Blue Jays

NL East- The NL East is another tough division. While the bottom two teams, the Mets and the Marlins won't do much this year, the other three, the Braves, Nationals and Phillies, all look very good on paper. Many have very high hopes for the the Nats this year. Throughout their years of finishing last, they loaded up their farm system and now their talent's getting there. I do however think Bryce Harper is being overhyped. Harper has been called the next Mickey Mantle (who happens to be my favorite player of all-time) and while he has a ton of potential, it's not like last year he did anything all that remarkable. In Harper's first season, in 139 games, he batted .270, hit 22 homers and 59 RBI's. Not bad numbers by any means, but compare that to other rookie standouts in the National League and it shows what he did was nothing that was incredible. Reds' third baseman Todd Frazier batted .273, hit 19 homers and had 67 RBI's in 128 games. While the Cubs' Anthony Rizzo only played 87 games, he batted .285 and had 15 home runs and 48 RBI's. He did that in 52 less games than Harper played. Look, Harper could be great, but he isn't up to the level of Mike Trout in the American League. Buster Olney compared the two as what Magic and Bird were to basketball their rookie years in 1979-80. That isn't a fair comparison. Perhaps a better comparison would be comparing what LeBron (Trout) and Chris Kaman (Harper) were to the NBA in 2003-2004. Harper hasn't done anything special yet. So let's not give him too much credit- but that's not to say that he could have a big year in 2013. Anyway, going back to my picks, the Braves are coming off a rather big off-season by hauling in 25 year-old superstar Justin Upton. They also brought in his older brother, BJ. The Braves will have a tough time replacing the leadership of future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, who retired in the off-season, but I think they'll be fine. I think Kris Medlen is going to have a breakout year for them. The Phillies might have a tough time this year. Going in to last year they had high hopes, but come the trade deadline, they were starting to fold by trading away some of their good bats like Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino. Age is starting to catch up with the Phils, and that could be a big problem. It could however all come together, and their pitching could will its way into the playoffs. But I wouldn't count on that. The Nationals are a loaded team with a lot of talent and the Braves also look strong, so this one's a toss-up. It really could go either way. I think I can see the Nationals getting off to a big lead, but the Braves getting hot at the end of the year. Every year we see teams free fall and I think the Nats could do that. The Nats are so talented though and we're going to be seeing them in the playoffs every year for I don't know how long. Curt Schilling says he could see them go on the type of run the Braves did where they won the division every year from 1991-2005. Even though I could see the Nats free falling, I think they're the safe bet to win the East. Division Winner- Washington Nationals

NL Central- For as uncompetitive as the AL Central is, the NL Central is the opposite. There are four teams that could be very strong this year. As I mentioned before, the Pirates were sixteen games over .500 with only a third of the season left. They looked like they could win the pennant and fans had high hopes for the team. And then they collapsed. They lost closer Joel Hanrahan and didn't do much this off-season. I think what happened last year was they're a team that's not used to winning. They've had a couple years where they've started well and had a good first half and then played poorly in the second half of the year. I think they're still growing and they need to make little steps each year. I think the Pirates are headed in the right direction and the big thing for them will be that they need their young players to keep improving and making strides in their game, like what Andrew McCutchen did last year. Can Pedro Alvarez become more than a 30 home run guy? Can he develop better plate discipline and hit for contact and not strike out 180 times and hit better than a .244 average? How can Starling Marte improve in his first full season in the bigs? If these guys, and more can keep improving, the team could be a playoff contender. However, I have them in third place in my picks. Not to worry Pirates fans, I think this is the year that they finally snap the 20-year losing streak. I think the Reds, Cards and Brewers will also be competitive. The problem with the Brewers is consistency. Last year they started to look like they were on their way back to the playoffs and then they got cold again. Then they got hot again, and then cold. If they can stay hot this year, they could sneak into the playoffs. But I like the Reds to win this division. The Reds are just so talented and not only are they talented, but they're hungry. Brandon Phillips was on Jim Rome's radio show recently and Rome asked him about how he feels about losing in the playoffs last year. Most guys will say "oh yeah, I'm over it and I'm ready to see what we can do this year." But Brandon Phillips was honest and said he wasn't over it. He said it still hurts, they thought they had the Giants beat last year. They were up 2-0, only one win away and then the Giants came back and ended up winning the World Series. That's the time of thing I like to hear in an interview. I think the Reds will be hungry and ticked-off this year, and will show no mercy. The last two years has taught me something about the Cardinals. Don't bet against them. They never give up. They did the exact same thing last year as they did the year before. They went on an incredible run to slip into the playoffs at the last second and got hot at the right time. They might have very well won the World Series if the Giants weren't as equally hot. I have no reason to bet against the Cardinals this year, and I expect them to get a Wild Card spot and do the same thing they did last year. As for my Cubbies, this won't by any means be our best year. There's a lot of rebuilding left and they could lose 100 games again. I do however think that they will increase their win total of 61 from last year. No matter how bad the team is, it will still be an interesting team to watch. I'm looking forward to taking the L down to Wrigley Field and watching Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro play. Rizzo gives us a lot of hope for the future. I'm interested in seeing how Edwin Jackson does this year after getting a fairly big contract from us. Can he return to the All-Star he was in 2009? I sure hope so. I also really hope that Josh Vitters can step his game up this year and give us a good sign and remind all of us why we drafted him with the third overall pick in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft. This year will probably reveal to us if he is our third baseman for the future, or if we need to abort the mission. I plan to be writing a lot about our Cubbies this season and I think we're on the right track. However, I'm picking the Cubs to finish last. The Astros are no longer here to finish last, so now the basement of the NL Central is all ours. Don't worry my fellow Cubs fans, we will get another high draft pick next year and get more pieces to build around. The Cubs aren't too far away from being a playoff contender, we could see them in the playoffs in 2015. But we had to completely clean house and build the team up from the minors. Theo's got us on the right path. Division Winner- Cincinnati Reds

NL West- The West will also feature a good division battle. The Dodgers went out and brought in some big name players last season. Unfortunately for them it wasn't enough to get them in the playoffs last year. This off-season they gave Zack Greinke a monster deal and hope that all their spending will get them in the playoffs. I think it might be just short. You see, there are a lot of good teams in the National League and a lot of teams that will be vying for playoff spots, and sadly there are only five spots in each league. Should the playoffs be bigger? I think they should add a team and I don't like the play-in Wild Card game, but I'll save that for another post (if you want it). I think the Dodgers will be very good this year but I just can't see them making the playoffs over the Giants, Cardinals or Nationals. I think the Giants will repeat as division champs and then the Dodgers will be competing with the Cards and Nats for a spot in the play-in game. I think they'll finish just short. I say Buster Posey has another big year and gets the Giants back in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks are a team that could surprise people this year, just like they did two years ago when they were in the playoffs and almost beat the Brewers in the NLDS. It will be tough for them being without Justin Upton, but they will certainly be a team to keep an eye on. The Rockies and Padres still have a lot of improving to do and both will be in for long seasons. Division Winner- San Francisco Giants

NL Wild Card Teams
1) Atlanta Braves- the Braves are too talented to miss out on the playoffs. I say they get in.
2) St. Louis Cardinals- the Cardinals get hot at the right time again and find themselves in the playoffs.

Playoffs

AL Wild Card Play-In Game
I'm gonna pick the Blue Jays over the Rangers, even with the game being played in Arlington. I see the Jays going on a tear at the end of the year and being very hard to stop.

NL Wild Card Play-In Game
In a rematch of last year's play-in game, I take the Cards to win again. What I've learned from the playoffs the last two years is that you can never count the Cards out.

ALDS
Tigers vs. Blue Jays- I think the Blue Jays can get past the Tigers here. This one's gonna be close though. It's very hard to beat a team that has Justin Verlander in a five game series. I think we could see an upset here, but my gut's telling me that we'll see the Tigers advancing.
Angels vs. Rays- I'm taking the Angels in a tight series. The Angels lineup is just too stacked.

NLDS
Nationals vs. Cardinals- In a rematch of last year's playoff series, this could really go either way. The Nats are gonna be tougher to beat this year. They're another year older and more experienced. I'm torn with making this pick, but I say the Nats get past the Cards in a tight game 5.
Giants vs. Reds- I guess I have rematches of last year's NL playoffs forecasted. I think things will shake out differently though in both of these series. I think the Reds are gonna come back and show no mercy after last year. No way they let themselves get beat by the same team in the first round two years in a row.

ALCS
Tigers vs. Angels- I don't know if the Tigers have enough firepower to get past the Angels in a seven game series. I'd put my money on the Angels.

NLCS
Nationals vs. Reds- I think the Reds are more ready to make the next step than the Nats are. I'll take them in another tight series.

World Series
Angels vs. Reds- I think the Angels are the Heat of the MLB. They're just loaded with weapons and stars. Anything short of a World Series win this year should be a disappointment for them. It's not really fair that they can bring in all these guys when small market teams can't and I'm not encouraging or celebrating the fact they can spend like that, I just think that this is the team to beat. If I had to put money down, I would put it on the Angels. However, this is going to be a very interesting season and there are a lot of very good teams. We're going to see some great division battles this year, and I don't think my picks are safe at all. I think we're in store for a crazy season, and a crazy playoffs. I expect this year's playoffs to be as close as can be. I'm looking forward to great season, and I'm looking forward to writing about it all the way. Best of luck to your team and thank you for reading!

And with that, this concludes my MLB Season Preview. Let me hear your thoughts. Drop a comment below or write on my Facebook fan page. You can also tweet me @vellvita7.

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