It's been almost two months since my last blog post. I've been busy looking for a job, and hopefully I can write a blog soon catching you up on once been going on in my life during that time. But let's get to it.
It's that time of year again. The time where 68 teams are tested in the best playoff system in all of sports: the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Almost all of you that read this will be asked to join a March Madness pool within the next couple of days, whether it be with your friends, your office, your college, your church, or whatever it may be. There are 9,223,373,036,854,780,000 different ways you can fill out your bracket. The possibilities are endless. And that's what makes it so fun.
I'm no expert when it comes to college basketball. It differs each year how much I know about the NCAA. And part of that is due to NBA commissioner David Stern's rule that won't allow players from high school to go straight to the NBA. Don't get me started on that one, I could and might even write a whole blog about that in the future, but anyway, the point is because players can't go from high school to the NBA, we get an immense amount of "one and done" players that only stay for one year of college and then leave for the NBA. That makes it trickier to follow the sport each year because underclassmen are constantly coming in and out and teams can change so much from one year to the next. Take Kentucky for example. Last year they won the National Championship with what some consider to be one of the greatest teams ever assembled, and this year they didn't make the tournament. Let's not forget that their best player and future NBA lottery pick Nerlens Noel tore his ACL, but even before that, they weren't the same powerhouse they were last year. The point is, if you don't watch a lot of college basketball, it's difficult to learn and know a lot about the game and the teams playing. There are years where I'm watching tons of college basketball, and there are years like this one where I've hardly watched any.
I guess I would consider myself this year as a casual fan. But anyway, I want to write a blog for the rest of you casual fans, or even those that don't follow at all. I want to show why there's hope for you and how you can beat those in your pool that are know-it-alls or experts.
The tournament is a crazy thing. We've had years where the top teams run things to the end with hardly any upsets along the way, and then we have crazy years where no one could have predicted the final four. If this year's regular season is any indication of the tournament, no one is safe and we could be seeing one of the best tournaments ever. Predicting the tournament is a beautiful mix of knowledge and luck.
So how do I make my picks? For someone that hasn't watched a whole lot of college basketball the past two or three seasons until right before tournament time, I've used the tournament as a tool to help me predict. I think the tournament is the ultimate test of a team's durability, so when I look at who the lower seeds are in the tournament, I look back on their history. The perfect example was three years ago, when 14 seed Ohio (Not Ohio St.) beat 3 seeded Georgetown. It was an upset that shocked everyone. So when Ohio made the tournament again last year as a 13 seed, I had them beating 4 Michigan (which they did), and advancing to the Sweet Sixteen (which they did).
What does a team's experience in the tournament say about them? It says that they're well-coached, and if they have upset someone in recent history it has helped put them on the map and help their recruiting. And also when they get back to the tournament, they have guys who are experienced and are confident that they can do it again. So when you're looking for your upsets, look at teams that have done it before.
When you're trying to pick a winner, you can also use tournament history. Although it may be trickier. Some teams like Syracuse consistently lose and letdown their fans each year. However, there are also teams like Duke that lose some disappointing games (example: 15 seed VCU beating them in 2007) that can come back only more determined and ready like they did in 2010 when they won the national championship.
So who am I picking? Right now I'm in the early stages of forming my bracket. But let's just say I have high hopes for Miami, Memphis and Michigan. Stay tuned.
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