After three months of nothing but crickets, the Cubs made the loudest free agent signing of the winter on Saturday, just days before the start of spring training.
Recent history hasn't been super-friendly to teams that have been willing to pony up big money for hot stove free agents, which seems to have created a great deal of reluctance from teams looking to make additions to their rosters this winter. Prior to the Cubs committing six years and $126 million in guaranteed money to Yu Darvish on Saturday, the largest free agent contract shelled out this winter was the Brewers' 5 year/$80 million commitment to Lorenzo Cain. That's it.
Spending big money has burned a lot of teams in recent memory. Remember two years ago when Jason Heyward was the most highly sought-after position player on the market, and the Cubs gave him eight years and $184 million? While it's still very early (I think he ups his production in 2018), I'm sure there are a lot of teams that would rethink the value of that contract given Heyward's rather disappointing performance at the plate (.243 BA, sub-.320 OBP over the last two years). Heyward is a very good player, valuable to the Cubs, an awesome clubhouse guy, and an outstanding defensive right fielder, but has he been worth $28 million annually over the last two years? Probably not.
That same offseason, the Red Sox gave David Price seven years and $217 million. Riddled by injuries and some off-the-field issues, Price finished the 2017 season as the league's highest paid middle reliever. Even the Diamondbacks may be looking to unload Zack Greinke, and he finished fourth in Cy Young voting!
The biggest risk associated with paying top dollar for a stud free agent is the length attached to deals. In most cases, it's expected that player x will offer a few high quality seasons at the front end of the deal, but as the player exits his prime, the team is stuck eating up a large sum of money on a guy that no longer offers the same skill-set (for reference, just look at some of the recent Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox payrolls; Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury and Hanley Ramirez are all set to make over $21 million in 2018). Loading up on expensive contracts can keep a team from being able to retain its star players once they hit free agency. The long-term implications are treacherous, but even in the short term, big contracts can go awry.Rangers are talking to the D-backs about starting pitching and Zack Greinke could be in play. Any potential deal is not close but the two teams have been talking— TR Sullivan (@Sullivan_Ranger) December 13, 2017
Darvish has been a spectacular pitcher at the big league level since coming to the US from Japan in 2012. Despite hitting some struggles in 2017 and facing various injuries throughout his career (including a torn UCL that sidelined him for all of 2015), he still boasts a career 3.42 ERA through five seasons, four and a half of which were spent in the American League. He's been an All-Star four times and was the Cy Young runner-up in 2013. He's been a terrific pitcher.
Yet, my biggest concern with the Darvish signing is an issue that is mostly out of his control: the future of baseballs manufactured and used in Major League Baseball games.
Tom Verducci wrote a great story last year, examining the difference between baseballs used in the 2017 World Series and the 2017 regular season. The piece provided strong evidence suggesting that the baseballs used in the World Series were slicker than the balls used in the regular season, due to a difference in the grain of leather. The variation was so evident to players that Lance McCullers was able to pick out the difference between a regular season ball and a World Series ball blindfolded.
The most common complaint coming from pitchers was that sliders weren't breaking the way they normally do. A closer look showed that few sliders were generating swing-and-misses, while many were rolling in to the strike zone in the form of cement-mixers. Darvish is a slider pitcher. That's his signature pitch. He throws what may be the best slider in the MLB. And in the World Series? He got rocked. Through two starts, Darvish only made it through a combined 3.1 innings. compiling a cumulative ERA of 21.60.
Small sample size? Yes. However nobody knows what the future regarding the league's baseballs is going to be. 2017 produced the most home runs hit in a regular season, 6,105, smashing the league record of 5,693 set in the steroid-infused 2000 season. Three years ago, MLB media members began discussing ways of how the game could generate more scoring, as ERA's were trending lower and lower each year — "Should the league shorten the strike zone?" was a common question. Many believe that the league needed to do something to create more excitement. That same season was Rob Manfred's first as commissioner, and since, we've seen an upward trend in long ball numbers; it doesn't appear to be an accident. Several players noticed a difference in the feel of baseballs last season, and I imagine the "juiced" ball theory has made it even more difficult for front offices around the league to accurately assess players.
In my opinion, this has been the most overlooked storyline of the winter. There were more 20+ and 30+ home run hitters last season than ever before. There's a surplus of power hitters out on the open market; thus far very few of them have been touched. For one reason, the surplus of bombers cheapens the value of power bats. They are no longer a rarity; most likely teams can find power at a much cheaper price. This can be attributed to variables such as "launch angle", but the second factor is the mystery regarding the league's balls. If the balls really are juiced, then what will become of a guy who hit 30 homers in 2017 playing with regular, non-juiced baseballs in 2018? How many home runs would normally be pop-outs at the warning track without the added boost? And what if the league never returns to the baseballs being used prior to the 2017 postseason?
I'm no scout, but I could envision projecting a player's output for the 2018 season being more difficult than ever before.
With Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Wade Davis hitting free agency, the Cubs' most glaring need this winter was pitching. Adding Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly, Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek helped shore up the bullpen and solidify the back-end of the rotation, but the Cubs still needed another starting pitcher; they couldn't afford another Brett Anderson situation.
The moment Arrieta spoke out against potentially giving the Cubs a "hometown discount" with a year and a half still left on his contract, I knew there was a slimmer chance that he would be returning once his deal was up. Since, his velocity, health, and overall performance has been actively declining. At age 31, it already appears that the 2015 NL Cy Young's best days may be behind him. Arrieta limped into the postseason with a strained hamstring and still delivered the Cubs an excellent performance in his final outing with the team in game 4 of the NLCS.
The 2017 Cubs couldn't get their bats going at the right time, and their starters couldn't go deep enough in playoff games. And the bullpen didn't have the flexibility to allow starters to come out of games early.
The Cubs upped the depth of their bullpen, while losing their best reliever (Davis). They added the pitcher on the market with the greatest resume, but I struggle to understand how adding another 31 year-old pitcher, who has had Tommy John surgery, and got shelled on the biggest stage makes the Cubs the 2018 favorites over the Astros and Dodgers.
My biggest fear, as a Cubs fan, is that the Darvish deal doesn't greatly help the team in the short-term or the long-term.
With $126 million on the books for Darvish, $86 million remaining for Lester, and $134 million left on Heyward's deal, the Cubs could face some challenges when the time comes for them to resign their core players. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks and Albert Almora Jr. will all likely command a high price tag when their contracts run up. Next winter's free agent class looks to be one of the best ever, headlined by Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw all potentially hitting the open market. The Cubs could spend big on a player such as Harper, but they'll also need to be careful as they will not want to have to lose any of their cornerstone franchise players for nothing when their deals are up.
With an overflowing roster full of promising young players, the Cubs had a chance to save some money and flip a position player or two for a fiscally cheap, controllable front-line starter such as Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, Gerrit Cole or Michael Fulmer.
Ian Happ had an impressive rookie season at the dish, but struggled mightily playing the outfield. With Russell healthy again and an overcrowded middle infield situation (Baez, Zobrist, La Stella), it doesn't appear that there is a position for him to play consistently; in fact, he is likely overqualified for his role as spark plug off the bench.
Kyle Schwarber is coming off an underwhelming year, and looks every bit the part of an American League designated hitter. The Cubs actually looked like they may be better without him the last two seasons, considering his poor defense, high strikeout rate (39% in the second half) and inability to hit left-handed pitching (.159 career BA vs. southpaws). After all, the team didn't miss a beat with him out in the 2016 regular season, winning 103 games. Replacing Schwarber with a high-contact hitter, with a good OBP and better defensive skills (welcome back Jon Jay?) could help the Cubs lineup which is not lacking power, and would allow Schwarber a chance to play in the American League where he won't have to worry about playing a position foreign to him (remember, he was drafted as a catcher) or re-injuring his knee. Nevertheless, 2018 will be a make-or-break season regarding Schwarber's future with the club.
The Cubs had some pieces they could have moved, providing alternative options. Most importantly, they would have needed to find a trade partner whose interests align with what the Cubs are looking to part ways with, which may not have happened.
To be fair to Darvish, his annual salary of $21 million is significantly less than the monster paychecks Greinke and Price are collecting (both upwards of 30+ million annually). Therefore there is not the same element of financial risk attached to this deal. The Cubs have money, and as the market continues to monetarily inflate, Darvish's contract could look great in comparison to what future pitchers hitting free agency could dictate.
Signing Darvish is a swing-for-the-fences move that could pay dividends to the club moving forward. The club could have the best pitching rotation in all of baseball.
On his best day, Darvish could win the National League Cy Young. On his worst day... well, we saw what happened in the World Series. Darvish could be the linchpin to a Cubs' dynasty, or the latest addition to Theo Epstein's less-than-stellar big contract resume (Carl Crawford got 7 years/$142 in 2011?... Yikes!).
And the craziest part is, the difference could all hinge on what baseballs are used in the next few postseasons.
