7 Reasons Why the Warriors Won't Win the 2017 Title

Photo via Associated Press

The Warriors are rapidly currying favor (see what I did there?) from fans and journalists all across the nation. But here's why 2016-17 won't be all sunshine and rainbows for the city by the Bay.

1) Many stars, still only one ball. Only so many points can be scored by an offense, and putting four guys who made last year’s All-NBA teams together doesn’t guarantee victory, shot attempts and by translation, happiness- just ask Kevin Love. The Warriors had no shortage of scoring or outside shooting in 2015-16, so how much better can their offense be? There comes a point where you to need remember that there is still only one ball that’s being played with in an NBA game, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
2) By adding Durant, the Warriors could be sacrificing some defense. Durant is no-slouch defensively, but Andre Iguodala is a hitman. Iguodala limited and contained LeBron in last year’s finals, until a back injury slowed Iguodala and allowed LeBron to run wild. With Barnes and Iguodala, it was easier for Steve Kerr to allocate minutes between the two wings. Durant is going to play significantly more minutes than Barnes demanded. Though Klay Thompson is a defensive whiz, the Warriors might struggle with distributing minutes among “the big four”, Iguodala and whatever big the Dubs want to roll with. If there’s a coach that can solve such an equation, it is Kerr, but this will be much more complicated than it looks on paper.
3) Size is a concern. Having a dominant big guy in today’s ever-changing NBA is quickly becoming overlooked and undervalued. Last year it appeared that the big man approach was outdated, until we got to May. Steven Adams and Tristan Thompson punished the Warriors in the low post. Losing Bogut was a bigger blow than expected, allowing Thompson a great number of offensive boards and letting LeBron to fly freely to the rim. Meanwhile, Varejao was flat-out awful in the Finals, making me wonder if the Cavs sent him over to Golden State as an undercover mole, in charge of messing things up. The Warriors did little to address their interior needs and even sacrificed Bogut and Ezeli for Durant. Other teams’ grind-it-out in the paint strategy could be their kryptonite. If they decide to run small with Iguodala with the big four, they will be at an even greater loss inside.
4) Team chemistry is equally as big of a concern. Look, Durant and Curry seem to love each other, and off-the-court I think this team should get along great. However, once this team hits adversity for the first time, it could have some serious problems. Durant is a very emotional guy, and it could be difficult for him if he has to defer even more than he did when he was playing with Westbrook. It’s not going to be fun for him traveling across the country and getting booed in every NBA arena outside of the Bay Area. LeBron had a tough time with it his first year in Miami and I think it showed. There’s going to be a lot more pressure. This could quickly become a miserable and far-from-fun year for this team.

Draymond could also get upset if the team struggles and he is capable of lashing out at any given moment. Draymond might want to touch the ball more and if he doesn’t, he could carry a bad attitude on defense, where he is needed most. Draymond might not like being the fourth guy that doesn’t make it on to posters and billboards. What if Durant has another foot injury? Or Curry hurts his knee again? This team could find itself in a great deal of turmoil very quickly, and is gambling on everybody staying healthy. The Warriors had to sacrifice some of their depth to get Durant, a roll of the dice that just about any team would take, but with any gamble comes the chance of coming up short.
5) The history of super-teams is not what one might think. The 2012-13 Lakers and 2003-04 Lakers are two prime examples of teams headed by four stars or more that couldn’t figure it out, and eventually burned into flames. Payton, Malone, Shaq and Kobe melted against an inferior Pistons team. Kobe, Dwight, Nash, Metta and Pau barely reached the 2013 playoffs and were immediately eliminated. Also keep the 2010-11 Heat in mind.
6) The Cavs are capable and the Cavs have LeBron. Though the Warriors caught some bad breaks in last year’s Finals, LeBron cemented his place as the best player in the league and with Kyrie, brought a title to Cleveland for the first time in decades. And I have no reason to think that the Cavs can't do it again.
7) The Spurs are capable. After losing Duncan and getting a raw deal in last year’s playoffs (pure robbery from the officials), the Spurs are still chugging along. Duncan passed the torch to Aldridge in the same way that David Robinson passed it to him early in the new millennium. Even without Duncan, the Spurs have the best frontcourt in the league headed by Kawhi, Pau and Aldridge. Pau will fit in beautifully with a great-passing and great-shooting team. Kawhi can lockdown Durant while Aldridge and Gasol (and whatever international big guy they have this year) bully the Warriors in the paint. Each of those bigs can step outside and knockdown mid and long-range jumpers too. Ginobili and Parker can still stroke it with Danny Green (another beast defender) and Patty Mills, and I love what the Spurs have to offer. Also, be on the lookout for Jonathon Simmons and Kyle Anderson. Both guys have shown a lot of promise and I think could be key contributors to another Spurs’ championship team.

While the Spurs might not carry the same star power or the same degree of shooting ability, the Spurs are a team. A team that can shoot, pass and grind, and a team that’s a little more versatile than the Dubs. And as we saw with those Lakers teams, the more talented team sometimes loses to the team that plays better together as a team.

I’ll take the Spurs over the Warriors in 7 and the Spurs over the Cavs in another 7.

Slaying the Giants

I distinctly remember a scene from the non-memorable 2012 film The Watch.

Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn and company stumble upon an alien invasion and play Batman to their town as the vigilantes known as the neighborhood watch.

The gang shoots down an alien, after using several bullets, to which the alien squirms and fights for its dear life. Even when it appears to be dead, Stiller and Vaughn comically continue to shoot the alien out of fear that the alien could still come back to life. The thing just wouldn't die.

                                          (The short bit can be seen from 1:35 to 1:54ish)

As I watched game 3 of the National League Division Series, one thing became increasingly clear- the San Francisco Giants are the annoying alien that never seems to die, defying every logical reason that they should be gone. In other words, they aren't dead until somebody actually chops their head off and puts them to bed.

Over the course of game 3, Cubs fans experienced a wide range of emotions, all the way from pure ecstasy and hope to bitter heartbreak and despair. The threat was real. It had felt as if the Cubs had stopped firing the gun and allowed the alien to get up and walk around.

Suddenly we were all reminded just how great of an empire the Giants have built. Midway through the 2010's, the Giants had already collected three rings- all in even-numbered years. The Giants had won each way imaginable, including a 2014 Wild Card run finishing in a game 7 thriller. With a 10-game win streak in elimination games, we knew exactly what the Bay Area Bombers were capable of.

Game 3 slipped out of the Cubs' fingers and with the Giants nursing a comfortable three-run lead a night later, panic set in for fans. A couple of guys were texting me wanting to talk about what the Cubs needed to do in the off-season- all this, with the Cubs still holding the 2-1 lead in the series. Yet at the time, it didn't seem so crazy; it felt like the Cubs were going to be the Giants' latest prey.

What happened next is something I haven't fully digested yet. Backed in to a corner, the Cubs offense came up big and knocked in four runs to take a 6-5 lead. Less than 24 hours after blowing game 3, Chapman made up for his mistakes and the Cubs were going to the NLCS. The alien had finally been obliterated.

Photo via AP

The Cubs actually did it. They performed a mafia hit on a dynasty and moved past a major roadblock. Though they had never faced this Giants' team in the playoffs before, they were now overcoming different demons.

Through four series', the Cubs had never won a playoff game in the pacific time zone, much less eliminated a west coast team from the playoffs. Ever. In the back of my mind, somewhere, there is my memory of the 2007 and 2008 playoffs, where the Cubs got swept in back-to-back NLDS's by the Diamondbacks and Dodgers.

Then there's the one time the Cubs have faced the Giants in the playoffs, in '89- when they split 1-1 at home, and got embarrassed on the west coast. And who can forget '84? My parents did an excellent job of shielding me from the misery that was '84 and the Cubby-killer that was Steve Garvey, until I stumbled upon one of the San Diego games last year on ESPN Classic. Oh, the evil and disturbing things you see in college.

But after a century and a quarter, the Cubs have gotten over another hump. And what better than to do it against a team that's a modern dynasty? A team that won its last 10 elimination games and possesses the indisputable, without argument, best postseason pitcher of the era? And what better way than to do it in dramatic, comeback fashion?

As the victory began to sink in, I started to think back to the 80s and 90s NBA Eastern Conference. Teams had to wait and pay their dues before they could be the new sheriff. Isiah had to wait through Bird's Celtics. Jordan had to get past Isiah's Pistons. Everyone else had to wait until Jordan stepped away from basketball (twice) to get their chance to reign supreme. The Knicks and Pacers, led by alpha dogs Reggie and Ewing, got to the top of the Eastern Conference, but only after Jordan was done running them over.

And now, for the National League in an even-numbered year of the 2010s, the Giants are finally out of the picture, and it's someone else's turn.