Comparing the 2003 Cubs and the 2015 Cubs

With Tuesday night's win, my favorite team in the world is headed back to the NLCS, for the first time since 2003- when we all had our hearts broken. It is worth noting that Cubs shortstop Addison Russell was 9 years-old when 5 outs away happened. There is no rehash all of the pain that we had to endure for years after the collapse that allowed the Marlins (back when they were still the "Florida Marlins") to get to, and ultimately win the World Series. The Cubs are back, and have the best chance to win it all since then. But you cannot ignore the question: if you could take the 2015 through a time machine to show up at Wrigley in 2003, to play a best of 7 series against the 2003 team, who would win? How do the teams compare by position, and who has the edge? Let's break it down by position.

Catcher: 2003 Damian Miller vs. 2015 Miguel Montero
It is remarkable how similar these two players are to each other. Take a look at the pictures below:

That's right, both caught for one of the greatest pitchers of all-time, Randy Johnson. Both are known to "call a good game" behind the plate. Both played with the Diamondbacks before coming over to the Cubs, and both were named to the National League All-Star Team in their final seasons in Arizona (2002 and 2014, respectively). In both's first seasons with the team, the Cubs played in the NLCS. But that isn't where the similarities end.

Even their statistics are similar; they both have the same career batting average of .262, with a knack for getting on-base (Miller: .329 OBP; Montero: .343). I wonder if they were both inspired to bat .262 after both wore the number 26 in Arizona.

But if you just look at 2003 Miller vs. 2015 Montero, while Miller may have a slight defensive edge, Montero has contributed more offensively to the Cubs than Miller did in 2003.

'03 Miller: .233 BA, .310 OBP, 9 HR, 36 RBI's (114 games played)
'15 Montero: .245 BA, .345 OBP, 15 HR, 53 RBI's (113 games played)

As you can see, '03 Miller posted a career low batting average in his lone season in Chicago, while Montero gave the Cubs more offense and even hit a walk-off home run in a game I will always remember as "the Miguel Montero game." With Hector Rondon in a save situation, and a runner on third, Montero allowed a ball to get past him, which let the Brewers tie and extend the game at 2-2. In the bottom of the tenth, Miggy recovered and smacked a game-winner in to the left field bleachers.

Montero stole the show in a game that featured one of the best catches and smartest plays in baseball history by Anthony Rizzo. Can anyone pinpoint a "Damian Miller game"? Didn't think so. While Miller was a solid catcher and while he and Montero have many similarities, I gotta give the edge to Montero at catcher.
EDGE: 2015 Miguel Montero

First base: 2003 Eric Karros vs. 2015 Anthony Rizzo
'03 Karros: .286 BA, .340 OBP, 12 HR, 40 RBI's, 1 SB
'15 Rizzo: .278 BA, .387 OBP, 31 HR, 101 RBI's, 17 SB

In December 2002, the Cubs made one of the most underrated trades of the millennium, in which they acquired two very underrated players. That winter, the Cubs questionably shipped away 2-time all-star catcher Todd Hundley for infielders Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek. A past-his-prime Hundley went on to hit a pathetic .182 for the Dodgers before hanging up the cleats, while Karros and Grudzielanek provided important, consistent bats and in many ways were the glue that held the team together.

While Karros stepped up as an important veteran leader, he was not a top-10 or top-15 player in the National League in the 2003 season. Anthony Rizzo was in 2015. Rizzo is the heart and soul of the Cubs. He is the team's identity. As a leader, he's helped the Cubs' believe that they can get to where they are now. And those stats aren't close either. Rizzo will likely receive MVP votes, and with all due respect to Karros, this isn't even a discussion. We'll stop here.
EDGE: 2015 Anthony Rizzo

Second base: 2003 Mark Grudzielanek vs. 2015 Starlin Castro
'03 Grudzielanek: .314 BA, .365 OBP, 3 HR, 38 RBI's, 1 SB, 8 errors
'15 Castro: .265 BA, .296, 11 HR, 69 RBI's, 5 SB, 24 errors

Going back to what we talked about in the first baseman section, in addition to Karros, the Cubs snagged a gritty second baseman from Los Angeles for next-to-nothing. Mark Grudzielanek wasn't the flashiest player. Heck, a bunch of the people reading this probably forgot about him until now. But he was consistent.

I like having a consistent second baseman. Grudzielanek was easy to trust. While Castro swings a mighty bat, I cannot say the same thing about him defensively. He makes me nervous. And while Castro has heated up at the end of the season, he is too much of a wild card. Does he have mad ability to get hot and be a beast? Absolutely. But where was that beast hiding for 2/3 of the season when Joe Maddon put him on the bench?

It's no secret that I have been very critical of Castro. But in this hypothetical 7-game series for Chicago supremacy, I would take the guy that batted .314 on the season and won a Gold Glove in his career, over the inconsistent one with high upside that is more prone to make mistakes. Sorry, Starlin.

EDGE: 2003 Mark Grudzielanek

Third Base: 2003 Aramis Ramirez vs. 2015 Kris Bryant
'03 Ramirez: .272 AB, 27 HR, 106 RBI's (with Cubs and Pirates)
'15 Bryant: .275 AB, 26 HR, 99 RBI's

After raiding from the Dodgers, general manager Jim Hendry found the location of his next heist: Pittsburgh. Through two separate trades, the Cubs were able to turn Jose Hernandez, Bobby Hill, Matt Bruback and Ray Sadler (who?) in to Kenny Lofton, Aramis Ramirez, and Randall Simon. After Corey Patterson tore his ACL, the Cubs were in need of a center fielder. Veteran Kenny Lofton was the obvious pickup, but the greatest surprise was Aramis Ramirez, who was seen at the time as more of a bonus in the trade. Ramirez turned in to a cornerstone franchise player for the Cubs, making two all-star games, winning a silver slugger, and stringing together eight 25+ home run seasons.

While Ramirez was a very good player, Kris Bryant has potential to be a great player. His ceiling is way higher.

In both of their first seasons with the Cubs, their statistics mirrored each other's, And both players fulfilled the same role for their teams. This is by far the biggest toss-up that we've had so far.

I would argue that Bryant has been more valuable to the '15 Cubs than Aramis was to the '03 team.

I would also give Bryant the edge because he is significantly faster. He has excellent wheels and is a threat to steal a base at any time, or murder a baseball.

EDGE: 2015 Kris Bryant

Shortstop: 2003 Alex S. Gonzalez vs. 2015 Addison Russell/Javier Baez
'03 Gonzalez: .228 BA, .295 OBP, 20 HR, 59 RBI's, 10 errors
'15 Russell: .242 BA, .307 OBP, 13 HR, 54 RBI's, 13 errors
'15: Baez: .289 BA, .325 OBP, 1 HR, 4 RBI's (only 76 at bats)

Up until game 3 of the NLDS, Javy Baez would not have been brought up in this category. Now, with the news of Addison Russell having to miss the entirety of the NLCS, Baez is going to be a key player moving forward in the Cubs' playoff push.

While I am one of Baez's biggest supporters and he has superstar upside, I have to give the edge to Gonzo here. While he made a bad error that proved to be costly, he came alive in the playoffs, mashing 4 homers and 8 RBI's. Baez is too much of an unknown to be given the edge.
EDGE: 2003 Alex Gonzalez

Right Field: 2003 Sammy Sosa vs. 2015 Jorge Soler

'03 Sosa: .279 BA, .358 OBP, 40 HR, 103 RBI's
'15 Soler: .262 BA, .324 OBP, 10 HR, 47 RBI's

While Sosa was on the decline in 2003, he still hit 40 bombs. Soler is a good player with a bright future and he has been great this postseason. But again, 40 homers speaks for itself. That, and steroids and corked bats are helpful too.
EDGE: 2003 Sammy Sosa












Center Field: 2003 Kenny Lofton vs. 2015 Dexter Fowler

'03 Lofton: .296 BA (.327 with Cubs), .352 OBP (.381 with Cubs), 12 HR, 46 RBI's, 30 SB, 97 R
'15 Fowler: .250 BA, .346 OBP, 17 HR, 46 RBI's, 20 SB, 102 R

In addition to being better statistically (for the most part), Lofton was a better traditional lead-off hitter/center fielder-type. Even out of his prime, he had better wheels and could cover more ground in the outfield.
EDGE: 2003 Kenny Lofton

Left Field: 2003 Moises Alou vs. 2015 Kyle Schwarber


'03 Alou: .280 BA, .357 OBP, 22 HR, 91 RBI's (151 games)
'15 Schwarber: .246 BA, .355 OBP, 16 HR, 43 RBI's (69 games)

The argument here: would you rather have a 22 year-old in his rookie season with incredible pop, or a 37 year-old past his prime that is hanging on and giving all that he has left?

Moises Alou showed up to play better than any of his teammates in the '03 playoffs. The dude led national league hitters in the playoffs with a .388 batting average. He got on base like it was his job (.423)... which it was. Alou was the key, consistent, veteran presence the team needed and he might have been the team's best player.

In contrast, the sky is the limit for Schwarber. He best epitomizes what the 2015 Cubs are: a bunch of kids having fun, with nothing to lose. Just a year ago he was playing at Indiana University and had critics clamoring that the Cubs reached too high for him with the fourth overall pick of the draft.

I was undecided on this for days, ever since I first had the idea for this piece. I texted my buddy Setzke and asked him what he thought and he responded:
Tough call. I'll go Schwarbs for the fear factor.

Yes. Just yes. While Alou had a great postseason performance, Schwarber has clocked three homers in just five games. Even though he could very easily slump and go 0-13 in his first three NLCS games, I like that fear factor. I like the fact that he is more likely to change the game with hi thunderous swing of the bat. And after an overexcited White Sox fan chucked a beer in the direction of Schwarber this season, I have reason to believe that he will not blow-up if Bartman made an appearance in this hypothetical series and robbed him of an out. I can't believe I'm doing this.
EDGE: 2015 Kyle Schwarber 

Pitching Rotation: 2003 Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano & Matt Clement vs. 2015 Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks & Jason Hammel

Here's how I would rank these pitchers:
1) '15 Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 236 K's)
2) '03 Mark Prior (18-6, 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 245 K's)
3) '03 Kerry Wood (14-11, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 266 K's)
4) '15 Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 207 K's)

Everyone else:
'03 Carlos Zambrano (13-11, 3.11 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 168 K's)
'03 Matt Clement (14-12, 4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 171 K's)
'15 Kyle Hendricks (8-7, 3.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 167 K's)
'15 Jason Hammel (10-7, 3.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 172 K's)

It is tough to rank the pitchers after the top 4, mainly because what constitutes as a "good" ERA in 2015 is different from what a "good" ERA was twelve years ago. The game has changed, and nowadays pitching is dominating.

Arrieta has gotta be the best pitcher out of this pool after his historic '15 season. Prior and Wood were an excellent dynamic duo, followed by Lester and his stellar big-game-pitching.

Aside from those four though, the rest are a bunch of wild cards. You have no idea what you are going to get from Jason Hammel. While Carlos Zambrano had a very nice regular season, he was disastrous in the playoffs, posting a 5.40 ERA in 16.2 innings. Kyle Hendricks, who I think has a very bright career ahead of him, has been inconsistent. Clement was pretty solid for the Cubs and pitched well in his second of two playoff outings, but struggled in his first. So let's imagine these fictional seven game series' matchups:
Game 1: Arrieta vs. Prior
Game 2: Lester vs. Wood
Game 3: Zambrano vs. Hendricks
Game 4: Arrieta vs. Prior
Game 5: Clement vs. Hammel
Game 6: Lester vs. Wood
Game 7: Arrieta vs. Prior

I'm favoring Arrieta to blank the '03's three times. But let's say he has a bad outing one of those. I like Lester to split with Wood, and Hendricks to beat Zambrano. I would favor Clement against the '15's over Hammel against the '03's. Either way, that's four wins right there. That's how important Jake Arrieta is and it goes to show why having the best pitcher among the two teams can trump a deeper stuff.
EDGE: 2015 Cubs

Bullpen: 2003 Cubs vs. 2015 Cubs

The 2015 Cubs bullpen has totaled 32 losses on the season altogether, compared to the '03 Cubs' 22. That's a third less losses! Then consider that the '15 team won 9 more games than the '03's. The '15's bullpen accounted for a far bigger percentage of the team's losses than the '03's.
EDGE: 2003 Cubs








Manager: 2003 Dusty Baker vs. 2015 Joe Maddon

The last three times that a manager came to the Cubs with previous managerial experience, the Cubs have made the playoffs. While Dusty Baker was a great players' manager, and a good clubhouse leader, he wasn't a great X's and O's guy. Not the best strategist. If you go back to game 6 and want to relive the pain, notice that he doesn't have anyone up in the pen. It takes a lifetime for someone to start warming up. But Joe Maddon on the other hand, has proved himself to be one of the best baseball minds in the game. This one isn't even close.
EDGE: 2015 Joe Maddon









So for those of you keeping score at home: that is '03's 5, '15's 7. But I actually think the 2003 team might have been better.

But I also think that the 2003 Florida Marlins team was way better than the 2015 New York Mets. The Marlins were loaded. Did the Cubs choke? Yeah. They did. But I feel like people don't remember just how good that team was. Every time Pudge Rodriguez came up with runners in scoring position, he killed the Cubs. And with the pitching rotation that team had (Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, AJ Burnett, Brad Penny, and Carl Pavano) coupled with their lineup of studs (Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, Derrek Lee, Juan Pierre, Miguel Cabrera, Jeff Conine, Pudge) I don't see why they aren't one of the best teams of the millennium.

In the year 2015, I don't think there are any great teams. Which may make room for the Cubs to be the season's great team. This team hasn't scratched the surface of its potential, but I am picking them to win the NLCS this time. No Bartman. No botched double play. No missed cut-off man. No eight-run 8th. No five outs away.

2015 will be different. This is the year that the Cubs are real.