Will the playoffs this year be interesting? Or are we going to see Tom Brady walk through the postseason yet again and collect his fifth ring?
This seems to be the dominating storyline throughout sports talk shows as we head in to what I think will be a very thrilling postseason.
Though Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill's devastating late-season injuries have softened the competition in the AFC, there is still plenty to watch for and plenty of gripping storylines. And thus, I present you with my 2016 playoff preview and predictions.
Q: Could Matt Stafford steal a playoff victory, the Lions' first since '91?
A: Stafford was well on his way to delivering the Lions their first division title since '93, as well as putting together a serious MVP resume before injuring the middle finger of his throwing hand in a week 14 game. The Lions squeaked out a victory over the lowly Bears, but came up short in the team's final three games. Though Stafford has said that his finger isn't to blame for the decline, it's clear that since, the results haven't been the same. Stafford's completion percentage has dropped significantly (he was completing 67% of his passes and completed 60% over the last four weeks) while playing tougher overall defenses. Unfortunately for the Lions, it won't get any easier. Even without Kam Chancellor, Seattle's defense will be a handful and will create some major headaches. Better luck next year, Detroit. Seattle 24, Detroit 13
Q: Will Brock Osweiler win a playoff game?
A: The best way to describe how I feel about the crapshow that will be the Carr-less Raiders and the Texans? This game could go either way and I will not be surprised with either outcome. Connor Cook could confidently step in and make good use of the weapons the Raiders have on the offensive side. A couple of short passes, a big gain off a screen play to Amari Cooper, and a couple of dump-offs to the running backs could potentially open up more throwing lanes downfield, and help the Raiders move the ball and score. Or JaDeveon Clowney and the Houston D could feast on the rookie quarterback, gifting Osweiler a playoff W. Consider that Oakland has more tape on Osweiler than Houston has on Cook. This could go either way and honestly it won't really matter. Whoever it is, the Patriots will crush in the Divisional Round. Raiders squeak one out, 19-16.
Q: Does Miami. the week's heaviest underdog, have any chance against Pittsburgh?
A: Not if the Steelers play mistake-free football. Pittsburgh could benefit from some Miami offensive miscues, that could turn in to points. Meanwhile, Bell, Roethlisberger and Brown will carve out the Miami defense. Pittsburgh 31, Miami 10.
Q: Eli vs. A-Rodg. Who wins?
A: Green Bay is red-hot. Is there a QB-WR duo that is more in-sync than Rodgers and Jordy right now? It's like they are sharing the same brain. We haven't seen something like this since...
Meanwhile, this is the first time that we are seeing playoff Eli since 2011. His last two trips to the playoffs have proved to be very efficient. Will he work his magic at Lambeau again?
This is going to be the game of the week. This is going to be a very close game, where the margin for error will be very small. A mis-ran route by a Green Bay receiver and a Mason Crosby missed field goal could be costly. This could be a prime "Mike McCarthy screws it up" playoff game. As great as Rodgers is (my regular season co-MVP), I like the Giants' team a lot more than the Packers', and I'm not sure if Rodgers' efforts will be enough. New York wins a wild one, 38-34.
Divisional Round
Q: What's the point-spread on Houston/Oakland at Foxborough?
A: Patriots by 20? Does it matter? The Pats have two bye weeks to the AFC championship!
Q: Has Matt Ryan finally arrived as an elite quarterback?
A: No. Though Ryan's 2016 campaign was the best of his career and definitely worthy of a Pro Bowl selection, context is important.
Matty Ice: 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns, 7 interceptions.
Rodgers: 4,428 yards, 40 touchdowns, 7 interceptions.
Brady: 3,554 yards, 28 touchdowns, 2 interceptions (12 games).
Rodgers and Brady played better defenses and had overall more difficult schedules than the Falcons did. One could also argue that Rodgers and Brady have less to work with offensively. The NFC North and the AFC East will each have two teams playing in the playoffs. The Falcons rightfully took advantage of the Panthers' Super Bowl hangover. There are many more parts of this debate to be had, but I expect the Falcons to crumble in the playoffs yet again. Until Matt Ryan shows me more in the playoffs, he will be a very good quarterback and not a transformational one (Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger). Seattle will handle Atlanta, 31-16.
#3 Steelers at #2 Chiefs- who wins?
In order for the Steelers to get to the Super Bowl, they will have to win in two of the most difficult road environments- Gillette and Arrowhead. But the Steelers, my preseason pick, have a good shot at doing so. While people all around the sport are clamoring about how hot Green Bay (won its last six games) and Kansas City (won 10 of last 12) are, Pittsburgh is being a little overlooked in this regard. Remember, after a 4-5 start, the Steelers won seven straight (eight if we assume they beat the 'Phins). The Steelers have also gotten hot at the right time, as the defense has matured and continued to find itself week by week. This will be a great game, but I'm taking Big Ben. Pittsburgh 31, Kansas City 27.
Q: Will Dak and Zeke's incredible Cinderella run continue all the way through January?
A: Teams like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have shown Dallas to be very beatable. The Giants actually beat them twice. However, I like Dallas in a "third-times-a-charm" game. Again and again we see in sports just how difficult it is to beat a time three times. When two very good teams, division rivals in this case, play each other three times, the law of averages naturally finds a way to play itself out. Chances are, you aren't going to get all the bad breaks all three times. You give the Cowboys a third crack at the Giants and I say they get it done in thrilling fashion. The Cowboys come out on top over the G-Men, 20-17....
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But I do think the Cinderella story will come to an end in January...
Conference Championships
NFC: #3 Seattle at #1 Dallas
This could potentially be the game of the year, but I think the Legion of Boom comes out on top. Seattle 34, Dallas 31.
AFC: #3 Pittsburgh at #1 New England
This will actually be the game of the year, as the winner of this game will win the Super Bowl. Book it. I think Pittsburgh will be the toughest match-up New England can draw. If it can somehow get to play KC instead, I like the Pats chances at a Super Bowl, but I believe the Steelers will show up at the right time en route to Roethlisberger's third ring. The defense won't stop Brady, but it will slow down Brady, while Gronk's presence will be greatly missed. But if Brady somehow finds a way to win another one, this time without Gronk, at the age of 39, he will reach his greatest accomplishment ever and the argument for GOAT quarterback should be over. Steelers 33, Patriots 31.
Super Bowl
Seattle and Pittsburgh face-off in a rematch of Super Bowl XL. This time the results are a little different. While the Steelers come out on top, the Seahawks put up a good fight. Roethlisberger's magical and improbable season closes at the very top of the sports world. Big Ben leads the Steelers down the field in the final minutes, securing ring no. 3. Steelers 23, Seahawks 20.
An important note: many will read this and laugh it off as a "homer pick." Yes, I am a Steelers fan. Yes, I'm feeling optimistic. But I haven't felt this optimistic about the Steelers in a long time, not since the last time they appeared in the Super Bowl (only to fall short to a scorching hot Green Bay team). Last year I had friends telling me they'd win; I said no. But there's something different about them this year. It seems like they have it. Recent years have plagued the Steelers with crucial injuries down the stretch. This year injuries have been present, but they've been overcoming them and the injuries haven't come at such an important time. If the offensive big 3 stays healthy (*knock on wood*), the Steelers will win the Super Bowl this year.
Whatever happens, I think we're in for a very exciting postseason.
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