In the preseason, many thought the NFC North would be the toughest division to win. I remember thinking, "man, any of these teams could win it." A young Vikings team with the world's best running back was coming off a surprising playoff appearance in 2012, and it looked like they could only get better from there. The Lions were coming off a disappointing off a 4-12 season after a playoff appearance in 2012, but everyone knew they were loaded with talent, and with the addition of Reggie Bush, we knew they could have a much more dynamic and explosive offense. The Bears, with a revamped offensive line, and a new head coach, were also a popular choice to contend. The Packers of course were the team I picked to win the division, but like I said, I wouldn't have been shocked if one of the other three teams won it.
Halfway through the season, the tight division race we were expecting was delivering. While the Vikings were having disappointing and stuck in the basement of the North, the Lions, Bears, and Packers were all tied for first at 5-3. At the time, the Lions had beaten the Bears, the Packers had beaten the Lions, and the Bears had beaten the Packers. It was as close a race as you could ask for among three teams. But at some point, it became less about who is the best among the three teams, and more about who isn't the worst. Let's take a look at each team, their remaining schedule, and their chances to not only win the division, but to make a run in the playoffs.
After a 2-7 start, the Vikings actually haven't been too bad. Clearly they don't have a chance to make the playoffs, but they have won 2 of their last 3 games, and they've come close to actually winning the two games over their last four games that they didn't win. I've been impressed with their effort over the last few weeks, and they certainly have played a lot better with Matt Cassel at quarterback. Cassel threw for 382 yards in Sunday's 48-30 win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, a game where they were missing running backs Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart. It makes you wonder how good they could be if they had started him earlier in the year and hadn't messed around with Josh Freeman. While we don't have an answer to that question, I think we can take away what we've learned from watching them in the past few weeks. And that is that they can be a tough match-up to the teams they play over the next two weeks. They go on the road to play Cincinnati this week, and then they go back home to take on Detroit for a game that will be a must-win for the Lions. I'm sure the Vikings would love to play spoiler against their division foe.
It was the kick heard 'round the midwest on Monday night: Justin Tucker's 61 yard field goal that sunk the hearts of Lions fans and brought new hope to Packers and Bears fans everywhere. The Lions now sit at 7-7, one game behind the Bears, and they no longer control their fate. If the Lions do indeed miss the playoffs, Jim Schwartz will likely be fired. He hasn't done enough with one of the most talented teams in the league. And they haven't been well-disciplined. Over the past few seasons, the Lions have been one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. This season, they rank rank 9th in that category, averaging 6.93 penalties each game. Yikes. I've seen it several times this season where they have allowed costly penalties to ruin their drives or defensive stands in crucial points in the game. If the Lions don't pull it together, they could see a new coaching staff next season.
With that said, the Lions are still alive. The Bears have had many opportunities to take over the division this year and have failed many times to separate themselves. The Packers are iffy as well. If the Lions can regroup and take care of these last games, they could still find themselves in the playoffs.
The Bears currently lead the division, and as someone from Chicago, I am happy they hold this lead. But I know it might not be something that lasts long. I wasn't a fan of the decision to replace Josh McCown with a now healthy Jay Cutler. McCown threw for 350 yards and four touchdowns in the Monday night game against Dallas and won NFC Offensive Player of the Week. It had me wonder. Has a guy that's won Offensive Player of the week in either conference ever been benched the following Sunday? Bringing in a rusty Cutler in to a division race where we can't afford any blemishes and we need to win out made me very, very nervous. I like the idea of sticking with the hot hand in McCown. I would keep Cutler throwing and warming up on the sidelines, and if McCown was struggling you could call in a reliever from the bullpen. The thing I like about McCown is that he makes smarter throws than Cutler does. He puts the Bears at less of a risk for turnovers.
The Bears are going to need to put up 30-40 points week in and week out to survive, because the defense has hardly been stopping anybody. Perhaps the return of Lance Briggs will get them back in the right direction, but I still have my fears.
It's not going to be an easy road in to the playoffs for the Bears. They have to go win in Philadelphia, and then take down the Packers at home in a game that could decide the division. It's also likely that Aaron Rodgers will be playing in that game. Their goal isn't going to be easy, however it is within reach.
The Packers season was looking pretty good entering the Monday night game against the Bears. They thought they could win at home and get to 6-2, meanwhile taking a two game lead over the Bears and potentially crippling their biggest enemy. That all changed when Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and has yet to play since. Entering the season, who would have thought that Matt Flynn would be playing on his third different team this season, back in Green Bay, playing for the Packers in must-win late season games? That's the case right now. And Flynn did a good job of leading the Packers back in the second half to beat the Cowboys on Sunday. It is unclear whether or not Rodgers will play this Sunday at Lambeau against the Steelers, but regardless that is a must-win game.
In all honesty, none of these teams are in great shape. Any team could still win it. But, if you put a gun to my head and I had to make a pick, I would take the Packers. I bet the Packers survive against Pittsburgh on Sunday and Rodgers beats the Bears next week. Out of all these teams, the Packers have the highest upside. They are the most likely to win a playoff game or two. I could see them going on a run like they did in 2010 after Rodgers returned from his injury in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl.
Say what you want about any of these teams, but one thing is for sure: it's never over until it's over. I look forward to an exciting two weeks of football.
Who do you think will win the NFC North? Comment below, or let me hear your thoughts on Twitter. Tweet me @vellvita7 or write on my Facebook fan page. Whatever your opinion is, let me know! And best of luck to your team!
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