Previewing the Survivor Finale

Tomorrow is the finale of the 26th season of my favorite television show Survivor. I've been writing about Survivor all season long, and I can't believe it almost over. What a great season it has been. The show started off with a great episode followed by a few snooze fests. Then the show hit its all-time low with the Brandon Hantz meltdown. A few more boring episodes, and then the merge hits. And then all the sudden we've had week after week after week of great episodes. Before I fully dive in to previewing the finale, I think I should talk a little bit about the last episode, since I haven't written a recap blog.

So last episode featured the loved-one challenge, something that I think is really either really entertaining or really boring. It's been funny to see some of the player's loved ones, for example Mike Skupin's accident-prone son who was just like his dad. This loved-one visit was alright, I found Erik and his brother(s) entertaining. Erik had one of the best loved-one moments ever last time he was on the show, when he said to his brother, "LOOK IT'S JEFF PROBST! HE'S JUST STANDING THERE!" This was hilarious, and I loved it as someone that is a huge fan. The funniest moment of the loved-one visit was Cochran's analysis of his dad, who was wearing sunglasses and flipping burgers. Anyway, talking about the gameplay, Brenda was voted out in yet another blindside of this crazy season. This was one of the sadder exits in the history of the show. Brenda felt betrayed by Dawn. The two had a very close relationship, and you couldn't help but feel for Brenda. However, people were being way too hard on Dawn on Twitter. She deleted her account because of all the abuse she was getting and she didn't want her kids to see it. Keep in mind this is a game for a million dollars. That's all that really is to be said. It's a game. However, I don't think this was the best move for Dawn. Cochran said to her, "we can vote out Eddie today and then go through all of this again tomorrow." Why not wait until tomorrow? You can give yourself more time and then decide if you want to go to the end with Cochran and Sherri or Brenda and Erik. I think the second of those options is better, and she could make her case to the jury saying how voting out Cochran was the biggest move she made, and that could win her the game. But instead, she's now in a position where she will likely be a final three goat, and Cochran is well on his way to a million dollars. 

So there's my brief and precise recap. Now let's talk about all things finale and reunion show.

As I said, right now this is really Cochran's game to lose. And I honestly just don't see him losing. I can't remember the last time it looked this obvious going in to finale weekend. Cochran's played a great game and based on the amount of airtime he's had, he should win. 

Sherri, Erik and Eddie all look like none of them will win, and they are clearly at the bottom. It would make forces for the three of them to create a new majority and take out Cochran and Dawn. Do I think it will happen? No. Maybe a couple of them are thinking about it, but there is also supposed to be a med-evac, which can complicate things even more.

If I had to predict the med-evac, who would I say? My guess is it's Erik. We saw Erik acting oddly in the last episode, and he was going to climb a tree, which could put him in physical danger. He didn't look too good after Brenda was blindsided, and his odd behavior could continue. I really hope it isn't Erik, because I've been wanting to see his strategy. It hasn't been completely revealed to us what kind of game his playing, and if he is laying low as a strategy. He's positioned himself in a place that if he wins two immunities, he's in the final three. And if he gets rid of Cochran before that, he could get the most jury votes. So here's my idea. Let's assume that the med-evac happens at the final five before the final Immunity Challenge. Let's run through each scenario where someone is med-evac-ed. 

SCENARIO ONE- No one is med-evac-ed

If there was no med-evac, let's talk about what I think would happen, that way we can compare how big someone being med-evac-ed has an impact on the way things play out. So if no one were to be medically evacuated, I would expect Erik or Eddie to be voted out at the final five. Only one of them could win Immunity, and the other will be left vulnerable and most likely the next target. Again, the best play for anyone that isn't Cochran is to vote him out now. Something I feared for Cochran after he took out Andrea was that people could then look at him as the biggest threat, and the continuation of blindsides could continue even further and he could fall victim to one. I wouldn't completely rule this out. This could actually happen. But if I had to put money on it, I'd say Erik or Eddie is gone, and if neither has Immunity than I bet they finally take out Eddie here. Eddie's got some friends on the jury and while he has been a pretty awful player, he could steal some votes. Think about it, he's got Eddie, Malcolm, Andrea and Mike on the jury. He's going to get Reynold's vote for sure and he could get one or two of the other votes. All it takes is a few votes to make you a serious contender. I think Cochran will recognize this and be able to keep Stealth R Us together for another vote before the final four. So now the final four is Erik, Sherri, Cochran and Dawn. Who goes next? It appears that Sherri is in Cochran's final three plans. Sherri played a great game pre-merge, but no one will recognize that at final tribal. Maybe she gets a vote from Phillip and maybe one from Mike, but that's about it. I think Erik could steal some votes. Erik's a real wild card. He could steal some votes, and if anyone is against Cochran or Dawn he could get some. He's supposed to be one of the nicest guys to ever be on the show and he hasn't appeared to have ticked off anyone. So if Erik doesn't win Immunity, he's gone. But Erik's a great challenge competitor and he could win. The smart thing would be for Sherri and Erik to try to convince Dawn to take out Cochran. But instead, I think they will just campaign against each other to assure themselves final three. Regardless of whether or not Erik wins Immunity, Cochran wins in final tribal against whoever he's sitting next to.

SCENARIO TWO- Erik is med-evac-ed

As stated earlier, this is what I expect to happen. With a final four of Eddie, Dawn, Sherri and Cochran, Eddie would need to win this challenge. He's clearly a fit guy and he's a firefighter. He could endure a long challenge. He could win, even though he hasn't one a challenge yet this season. If he doesn't win, he's gone. The other three will recognize how many friends he has on the jury, and he will be out. Again, taking out Cochran would be the smart move here, but I just see Eddie going out if he doesn't win Immunity. Cochran wins against whoever he is sitting next to.

SCENARIO THREE- Cochran is med-evac-ed

Now this would really shake things up. Things would be a lot crazier here. This would probably make for the most dramatic finale, however it would be sad if Cochran played this great game and had it all go to waste because of an injury. Would Dawn still be in a position to call the shots? Or could the other three take over and send her home? This is a really tough one. I don't think Dawn's in a position where she can win the game. She just has too much blood on her hands. Mike Skupin talked about after last season how he felt that people were more angry towards him because he was a Christian 50 year-old father, as opposed to someone like Malcolm who is a 25 year-old bartender. I see history repeating itself here, only Dawn hurt more people than Skupin did. Skupin didn't really hurt anyone, and Dawn has. Unless Dawn can unleash an incredible final three speech, she won't win. Dawn's in a bit of a position similar to another player from last season, Lisa Whelchel. Lisa was seen as very well-liked, and a very likable and kind person, just like Dawn. But because of the game she played, people didn't want to vote for her. So yeah, if the final three is Sherri, Erik, and Eddie, that would be very interesting. I have no idea who would win that. Maybe Erik. I don't know. This is a huge wild card and don't know what would happen.

SCENARIO FOUR- Sherri is med-evac-ed

This wouldn't change things up drastically. While Cochran and Dawn would lose a member of their final three, I think they could easily get Erik or Eddie to turn on one another instead of forcing a sloppy tie. I think that is what will happen. Whoever doesn't win Immunity is gone. Again in this case, Cochran wins.

SCENARIO FIVE- Eddie is med-evac-ed

This wouldn't change a lot up. Eddie could likely be the next to go. This would help Erik out. All he would have left to do is win a challenge and he's in the final three. But again, if you're left, you need to vote Cochran out. Maybe it isn't as clear to the castaways that he's in such great shape, and we know it because of the editing and the editors are telling us a story. But if you want to win this game, Cochran needs to go. I see Cochran winning in this situation.

SCENARIO SIX- Dawn is med-evac-ed

This would shake things up. Cochran could be left in a tight spot. This could make the other three voting out Cochran more possible. If Cochran can just make it through these next couple votes, he is the champion of Survivor: Caramoan.

Another thing to add is that we could be in for some good jury speeches. We have a good mix of entertaining people, and ticked-off people. Also, you gotta love Reynold's enthusiasm. He could give a passionate speech.

As for the Survivor reunion show, things could be interesting. According to a tweet put out by Russell Hantz, Brandon will not be at the finale due to a threat he put out about fighting Phillip. If CBS is preventing him from being at the live show, that would be a good thing. No reason to have a Jerry Springer-like finale. A few weeks ago it was announced that Brandon's family won't be attending the family, after some controversy surrounding him on social media (he posted a picture of himself in bed with another woman and basically told everyone he was cheating on his pregnant wife). I'm all for less Hantzs. Russell is expected to be at the finale. I am hoping that CBS won't waste any time talking to him as there is a lot to be talked about from this season and Brandon had nothing to do with any of it. Brandon's first time on they spent at least a quarter of the live show talking to Russell, which was a blatant waste of time. Why waste any more time talking to Russell when Brandon did nothing on this season and he might not even be at the reunion? Please, CBS. Hopefully this concludes one of the worst things to ever happen to the show: the Hantz family. 

I love watching the reunion and I hope at least everybody gets a question. I expect there will be several fans that don't get questions though. Francesca will most definitely be asked about being voted out first twice, and they will talk to Brandon if he's there. Fans like Allie, Hope, Laura, Julia, and Matt might all go ignored. Shamar was someone that was focused on for a big part of the beginning of the season, so he will probably be talked to. I expect Malcolm, Cochran and Phillip to get the most time. What I look forward most to is the preview for the next season, which is expected to be a twist involving ten returning players, with each of their loved-ones also playing. I'm not sure how to feel about the season theme. Production must have recognized after this season, how good seasons with returning players can be, which is why they could be doing this next season. There are rumors floating around that the season after that could be another all-stars, we will see. I just love seeing the preview for the next season at the end of the live show each season. Gets me really excited for what is to come.

Going back to the topic of the actual game, Cochran is in the best shape to win. I'm not ruling it out that he gets blindsided, but I'm picking him to win. And what a story it would be for him to win. Going from the tiny Survivor super fan and nerd, a guy that wrote essays on Survivor for classes. Going from that guy who was afraid to take his shirt off when he first got on the island and what picked on and treated terribly by the guys in his tribe, to playing one of the best games against a bunch of other returning players. Man, that would be a great story. Cochran is the ultimate underdog. I will be extremely happy for him if he wins, and if he does, he earned it. It would close out a great season. The sad thing will be spending the next four months of our lives without Survivor. We will miss it this summer. I'm grateful for another great season. Who would have thought that after 13 years, and 26 seasons, Survivor would still be going strong. Looking forward to the finale, and enjoying the rest of the season while it is here. Don't you worry, I will continue to write about Survivor after the finale and during the off-season. But again, let's sit back and enjoy the last three hours of the season we have. Thank you all for reading. Let me hear your thoughts on the show and the finale. Let me hear thoughts in the comments below, or let me know on my Facebook fan page, or on Twitter @vellvita7. Enjoy the finale!